地球科学与气候变化杂志

抽象的

Assessing Climate Change Impacts in the Lake Tana Sub-Basin, Ethiopia Using Livelihood Vulnerability Approach

Solomon Addisu Legese, Olaleye Adesola Olutayo, Hameed Sulaiman, and Prasada Rao

The agro-ecology based classification was used to analyze the vulnerability of Lake Tana sub-basin (LTSB) to shocks induced by CC. One hundred and fifty households were surveyed in LTSB and data were collected on sociodemographics, livelihoods, social networks, health, food and water security, natural disasters and climate variability. Data collected were aggregated using a composite index, differential and integrated vulnerability analysis approach to develop indices. The major components have been classified into adaptive capacity, exposure and sensitivity to climate change impacts to analyze Livelihood vulnerability index (LVI)-IPCC contributing factors. The results depicted that Upper sub-basin (USB) had a LVI-IPCC score of 0.042 and the LSB was (0.036). The LVI–IPCC analysis of Lower sub-basin (LSB) was 0.036 and that of the USB 0.042. Results showed that almost all the three major components of the IPCC vulnerability indices both agro-ecology of LTSB, however, the USB households were more vulnerable more than the LSB. From these results, it can be seen that the former is more susceptible to CC compared to the latter. The overall LVI–IPCC scores indicate that USB households might be more vulnerable than LSB households (0.042 versus 0.036). This study showed general and site-specific factors contributing to different components of vulnerability (exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity) for mixed agro-livestock smallholders. The findings can be used by the government of Ethiopia as well as AID agencies in the country to reduce vulnerability and enhance adaptive capacity of both the LSB and USB basins. In addition, income and livelihood diversification may be one of the options to reduce vulnerability in all districts.