地球科学与气候变化杂志

抽象的

Investigation of Precipitation and Temperature Change Projections in Werii Watershed, Tekeze River Basin, Ethiopia; Application of Climate Downscaling Model

Gebremedhin Gebremeskel Haile, Asfaw Kebede Kassa

Climate change is an overwhelming global issue. Everything, living or non-living in one or another way, have in contact with climate change. A statistical downscaling model (SDSM) was used to investigate future climate projections based on precipitation and temperature using (Regional climate Model) for A1B and B1 emission scenarios in Werii watershed (1797 Km2). Four meteorological stations, namely; Abyiadi, Adwa, Hawzen and Adigrat were selected based on proximity to the watershed and data availability. For A1B scenario, precipitation is likely to increase in each station by 11%, 34%, 31% and 20%, whereas for B1 scenario, precipitation will increase by 10%, 33%, 33% and 25% at Abyiadi, Adwa, Hawzen and Adigrat stations respectively by 2050. Change in maximum temperature shows increasing at Hawzen for A1B (0.16°C) and B1 (0.2°C) and smaller change at Adwa (0.06°C for A1B and -0.01°C for B1). The maximum temperature is expected to change in the range of -0.01°C to 0.2°C. Similarly, change in minimum temperature is expected to increase positively with maximum at Hawzen station for A1B (0.34°C) and B1 (0.29°C) and smaller change is likely at Adigrat station (0.07°C for A1B and 0.09°C for B1). Generally, future projection shows the change in precipitation and temperature is positive and will show an increasing trend in the period from 2015 to 2050. The REMO model and SDSM have simulated well in Werii watershed. Hence, REMO and SDSM model can be used in similar watersheds in the semi-arid regions.