石油与天然气研究

抽象的

Research on Unsustainable Embodied Oil Leakage and Its InfluenceFactors in China's Export Trade

Keqiang Guo and Baosheng Zhang

Over the past few decades, China has “leaked out” massive oil resource through exporting different kinds of products, which intensified the county’s energy dilemma and obviously is unsustainable. The aim of this paper was to calculate the total and industrial amount of oil embodied in China’s export during 2002~2012 and to analyze its influence factors. An exported embodied oil model was built based on the Input Output Analysis, and the influence factors of embodied oil were decomposed into energy utilization technology, export structure and export scale on the basis of the Structure Decomposition Analysis. The results indicated that the direct and the complete oil consumption efficiency in 2012 are lower than that in 2002. The total exported embodied oil grows from 0.58 × 108 tons in 2002 to 1.11 × 104 tons in 2012, which accounts for a large percentage of the domestic oil consumption. The enlargement of export scale is the main positive promotion for embodied energy increase in exports during 2002~2007 and 2007~2012, and the energy utilization technology is the key factor for the part of negative influence in embodied energy decrease. Though the export structure factor doesn’t play a key role in embodied energy change in exports, comparing with the other two factors, it has substantial potential for decreasing the exported embodied oil. Finally, policy suggestions were proposed based on the results to improve the situation.