生态系统与生态学杂志

抽象的

Sea Level Rise and Abu Dhabi Coastlines: An Initial Assessment of the Impact on Land and Mangrove Areas

Taoufik Saleh Ksiksi, Tarek Youssef and Essam Abdelmawla1

The effects of climate change are now becoming more detectable because of the alarming rate of observed changes in our planet. One of the more devastating outcomes of climate change has been sea level rise (SLR). The present study aims at developing preliminary models of SLR and its effects on the coastlines of Abu Dhabi Emirate. A second aim has also been to develop a natural vulnerability index for decision makers and stakeholders to develop action plans in areas most vulnerable to SLR. For urban areas, the level of damage due to SLR would rise to 9.45% and 15.89% in a potential 1.5 m and 2 m SLR scenarios; respectively. The maximum damage to the urban areas would reach about 40% in case SLR attains the 3 m level. Mangrove Ecosystems affected would reach 25.54 Km2 (or about 81.5% of the study area) under a 3 m SLR scenario. The total land areas that would be affected by the different SLR scenarios reaches a staggering 528 Km2 (or 30% of the study area) at the 3 m SLR scenario. More than 3% of the impacted area (when considering any of the SLR scenarios) is classified as very highly vulnerable. More than 7% is classified as highly vulnerable. It is strongly believed that any future interventions and preparations to alleviate the impact of SLR should take into account the vulnerable areas highlighted above (i.e. 10.3%). The estimates reported here highlight the gravity of the potential mangrove and land areas affected, even under the lowest SLR level. Early planning for longer term implications will certainly save both time and resources.