神经传染病

抽象的

Unexpected Increase in Deaths from Alzheimers, Dementia and Other Neurological Disorders in England and Wales during 2012 and 2013

Rodney P Jones

Background: There was a large and unexpected increase in deaths due to Alzheimer’s, Dementia and certain other neurological diseases in 2012 and 2013 in England and Wales. The Office for National Statistics has suggested that the elevation of dementia to the leading cause of death in women during 2013 was simply due to changes in coding. This claim is investigated against a background of a suspected outbreak of a new type of immune modulating disease.

Methods: Cause of death statistics for England and Wales were analyzed in 2011, 2012 and 2013 using five year age bands. Change in deaths was adjusted for expected population growth.

Results: All-cause mortality in England and Wales increased relative to the expected downward trajectory in both 2012 and 2013. However deaths due to Alzheimer’s and Dementia were particularly affected in an age-specific manner, which discounts explanations based on better coding of the cause of death. Certain other neurological conditions were also affected, especially in those aged over 70 years. Deaths in the oldest old (age 95+) generally declined. The effects upon late-onset Alzheimer’s was far more pronounced in 2013 than 2012, especially in females.

Conclusion: An infectious event appears to have occurred which led to a general increase in deaths, however, the percentage increase was far greater for those suffering from neurological disorders and over the age of 70, but generally not in the oldest old. The nature and mode of action of a presumed infectious agent requires urgent research.